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Yet labour markets are softening, the euro zone faces recession and China's property sector is in crisis. Here's what some closely-watched market indicators say about global recession risks:1/ AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM? Britain's economy avoided the start of a recession in the third quarter but still failed to grow. Economists broadly expect the global economy to slow next year but avoid a recession. If supply shocks resulting from the Israel-Hamas war become severe enough to push Brent crude to $150, a level it has never breached, a "mild and fleeting" global recession could result, Oxford Economics reckons.

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[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. ET (1500 GMT) with a 152 strike price, analysts said. The dollar shot to 151.92 yen at 9:42 a.m. (1442 GMT), its highest level since October 2022, and then tumbled to 151.20 minutes after the strike price. Earlier, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government would keep monitoring the currency market and respond appropriately. The yen is down almost 14% against the dollar this year.

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☆ Dollar rallies to fresh one-year high against a beaten-down yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | Thomson Reuters | Senior Correspondent On The London Markets Team Covering European Sovereign Bond Markets | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government would keep monitoring the currency market and respond appropriately. The comments had little immediate impact on the yen, which is down almost 14% against the dollar this year. "Given the move in U.S. Treasuries of course the yen is not rallying yet," he said, referring to U.S. bond yields. The dollar on Monday rose to 151.88 yen , its highest level since October 2022.

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ECB chief Christine Lagarde may stick with the high-for-longer mantra that has pushed up long-dated bond yields. A weakening economy meanwhile suggests the need for further tightening is limited but the ECB is likely to push back against rate-cut speculation. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the ECB will need time, possibly until next spring, before it can be confident that inflation is coming down. The ECB expects headline inflation to ease to 3.2% in 2024 from an average of 5.6% in 2023. Oil price moves, inflation outlook shifts4/ What does the ECB do if things go wrong with Italy?

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High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. Italy's 2.4 trillion-euro debt pile is the focus in Europe, where the IMF has said high debt leaves governments vulnerable to crisis. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis.

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High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis. Not enough reforms are being implemented, OECD chief economist Clare Lombardelli warned.

Yet increasingly, euro area specific factors, particularly exposure to higher oil prices, risk further weakness in an already stagnating economy, and the single currency. The euro is especially vulnerable to rising oil prices, with net imports accounting for over 90% of oil products available in the European Union. "High oil prices are weighing on the euro area's terms of trade, and if oil prices move above $100 per barrel to $110 per barrel we think it will be difficult for the euro to avoid parity," said Nomura's G10 FX strategist Jordan Rochester. But it also lifts price pressures through higher import costs, compounding the impact from higher oil prices. "Definitely the euro zone is not in a good place right now," said Moec, adding that he did not rule out a euro move to parity.

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Why are global bond yields rising? With inflation excluding food and energy prices elevated and the U.S. economy resilient, central banks are pushing back against rate cut bets. Many investors were also betting bond yields would drop, so are extra sensitive to moves in the opposite direction, analysts say. That is no surprise, and analysts do not rule out a rise in 10-year Treasury yields to 5%, from 4.7% now . Bond yields determine governments' funding costs, so the longer they stay high, the more they feed into the interest costs countries pay.

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The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing's determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. Many central banks target 2% inflation; market gauges of traders' long-term U.S. and European inflation expectations are running higher , . Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute, said Sino-U.S. tensions, provide a "new lens" through which to analyse emerging markets' growth prospects. But the performance of big U.S. tech stocks and global share indices are vulnerable to signs of Chinese retaliation. With China underperforming global stocks, investors are split on how to approach this market.

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The European Central Bank last week lifted rates to a record 4% and upgraded its inflation forecast for 2024, but the euro fell and has lost almost 2% against the dollar this month. Overall, Europe's central banks "would like to portray this idea of higher for longer (rates)," said Ed Hutchings, head of rates at Aviva Investors. The currency, which the central bank labeled "unjustifiably weak," barely caught a break and remains near a record low against the euro . He expected one the of big European central banks to be the first to cut rates. European central banks were "in a bind," Fiotakis added, as higher oil prices also threatened to push inflation higher.

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Yet in Europe, sterling came under pressure after data showed Britain's high inflation rate fell unexpectedly in August, prompting speculation that the Bank of England could pause its historic run of interest rate hikes as soon as Thursday. Two-year Treasury yields were down 3.5 basis points in London trade at 5.07%, having risen sharply on Tuesday, when five- and 10-year Treasury yields reached 16-year highs. World stock markets were edging higher ahead of the Fed rate decision. UK gilt yields fell sharply as investors slashed bets for a rate hike on Thursday, with two-year yields last down over 14 bps at 4.85% . "Combined with their recent dovish commentary, we now expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate unchanged tomorrow and lower our forecast for the terminal policy rate to 5.25%," Stehn and co. added.

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Current funding for most U.S. government programs except for the military and Social Security payments expires on Sept. 30. The government would continue to make payments on Treasury bonds and other forms of debt during a shutdown. A government shutdown would prevent the collection and release of key market data including gross domestic product, unemployment figures and inflation data, clouding the ability of central bankers to gauge the strength of the economy, Cantrill said. "The Fed – who has emphasized how data-dependent it currently is – would be flying blind" into the central bank's policy meeting in November, she said. Economists at Capital Economists, meanwhile, said in a note on Monday that the risk of a shutdown is rising but said they expect a quick resolution.

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U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 30, 2023. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, with benchmark 10-year yields hitting 16-year highs on Tuesday, and unease over China have boosted the dollar this month. "What we're seeing is a bit of a pause," said Fiona Cincotta, senior markets analyst at City Index, in London. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major counterparts, was a touch softer at 103.30, holding below Friday's 10-week highs at 103.68. The Australian dollar was 0.4% firmer at $0.6441 as global risk appetite recovered.

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The euro slipped 0.25% against the dollar, government bond yields across the bloc edged lower while European stock markets dipped, with Spain's benchmark index down 0.65% in a clear underperformance. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures , rose 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, pointing to a positive open for Wall Street. With the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan meeting this week, a note of caution underpinned the mood across global markets. The benchmarks continued their fourth straight of week of gains last week, as supply is expected to tighten following OPEC+ cuts. HOST OF EARNINGSOn top of central bank meetings and economic data, investors also braced for a slew of earnings from both sides of the Atlantic.

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LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - World stocks rose to a two-week peak on Monday, with Japan's Nikkei closing at its highest level in 33 years, drawing support from signs that cooling inflation might temper central banks' appetite to further hike rates. U.S. data on Friday, which hinted towards cooling inflation, helped bolster gains in the tech sector and underpinned sentiment in world stocks. MSCI's world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.25% to its highest level in just over two weeks, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index also hit a two-week peak (.STOXX). Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) shed 5% last quarter while much of the developed world rallied. Key U.S. data this week include closely watched surveys on manufacturing and services, job openings and the June payrolls report.

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That threw a new curveball at UK markets, as just last week economists polled by Reuters had unanimously expected the BoE to raise by 25 basis points. I would not be surprised if we see a 50-bp rate rise from the Bank of England tomorrow." Other analysts said delivering a larger rate rise on Thursday risked further undermining the BoE's messaging. Bets on where BoE rate hikes might peak rose as high as 6% on Wednesday. The rise in yields hit UK housebuilders (.FTNMX402020), which were down as much as 3.1%.

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ECB chief Christine Lagarde said the central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro was not pausing. "This is a very restrictive policy and it will turn into credit tightening and that will bring a recession." The ECB has now increased its key deposit rate by some 375 bps since last July, from -0.5%. U.S. rates have jumped 500 bps, with the Federal Reserve hiking again on Wednesday while opening the door to a pause. Gareth Rudd, a European equity fund manager at Chelverton Asset Management, said he was negative on European bank stocks because regulators will want them to conserve capital instead of paying dividends.

LONDON, May 1 (Reuters) - Inflation in the euro area is too high for comfort, meaning markets expect the European Central Bank to deliver its seventh straight interest rate hike on Thursday. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates by on Thursday? Most analysts expect at least one more rate move after Thursday, even as the Federal Reserve looks set to pause its rate hike campaign. Market pricing suggests ECB rates will peak around 3.6% this year, and Belgium's central bank governor Pierre Wunsch says he wouldn't be surprised to see rates rise to 4%. Tuesday's bank lending should offer some clues but it might be too early to gauge the full impact of the March banking crisis on financing conditions.

Low and stable inflation is good for markets and the economy, so central banks had to show their seriousness on inflation, Tannenbaum added. Central banks softened rate rises with communication that was mindful of instability risks, showing reassuring "humility", said Perkins. "The bank resolution framework created after the great financial crisis," said Francesco Papadia, senior fellow at Bruegel and former ECB director general for market operations, "is proving difficult to implement." Reuters Graphics4/ UNITED WE STANDAfter CS's rescue, the Fed and other big central banks supported market liquidity with dollar swap lines. Amundi's Pradhan said the "case by case" central bank responses to individual lenders failing in March exposed the lack of a coordinated bank resolution system.

A showdown over U.S. government efforts to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling for the world's largest economy have sent jitters through global financial markets. JPMorgan said in a note published late Wednesday it expected the debt ceiling to become an issue as early as May, and that the debate over both the ceiling and the federal funding bill would run "dangerously close" to final deadlines. Yields on U.S. T-bills, the most sensitive to the debt ceiling debate, were again pushing higher as the deadline draws nearer. The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. It can only pay Treasury bills (T-bills) through tax revenue.

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